Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 170.577875 200.207832 234.859562 278.736551 333.325133 399.682467 4.874958e+02
2025-11-09 129.915228 164.620982 209.403154 272.604507 361.471290 485.094800 6.759050e+02
2025-11-16 106.337111 142.035721 191.384875 266.745237 382.986038 562.902055 8.787107e+02
2025-11-23 90.334304 125.569458 176.921773 260.370386 399.149120 634.173603 1.096332e+03
2025-11-30 84.274622 121.779543 179.359648 278.981930 458.109463 792.219943 1.538618e+03
2025-12-07 76.348412 113.688854 173.399196 282.017722 490.241341 911.752100 1.966214e+03
2025-12-14 70.565655 107.998369 170.145356 288.643732 530.222044 1060.500541 2.551488e+03
2025-12-21 64.615780 101.161808 163.767163 288.002540 555.142147 1185.381618 3.160582e+03
2025-12-28 62.487568 100.438294 167.875204 308.204490 630.128657 1461.297916 4.464210e+03
2026-01-04 59.898194 98.529634 169.442268 323.460149 698.528131 1753.747167 6.150887e+03
2026-01-11 57.168918 96.006089 169.413976 335.224434 762.184095 2066.994548 8.352213e+03
2026-01-18 54.134854 92.552123 167.040990 341.217606 812.820314 2368.818270 1.100291e+04
2026-01-25 50.795080 88.304945 162.796907 342.811053 854.512386 2676.592722 1.440523e+04
2026-02-01 47.035746 82.872383 155.429267 335.539611 868.574522 2893.728114 1.778101e+04
2026-02-08 43.685785 77.921600 148.481994 328.068167 880.159004 3113.171121 2.189291e+04
2026-02-15 40.649780 73.312179 141.720982 319.842841 887.015707 3320.642152 2.670613e+04
2026-02-22 40.204169 73.943408 146.663301 343.956964 1014.071641 4229.873089 4.476381e+04
2026-03-01 38.415990 71.589334 144.486888 347.900688 1070.615604 4830.587349 6.349501e+04
2026-03-08 37.056930 70.017386 143.943813 356.516744 1149.628244 5666.537962 9.701901e+04
2026-03-15 35.266512 67.349044 140.457295 355.682432 1190.566483 6311.383455 1.368473e+05
2026-03-22 35.034055 68.082208 145.381562 382.028414 1362.627961 8214.561579 2.839292e+05
2026-03-29 34.433734 67.929126 148.068268 402.002057 1518.581865 10338.595701 5.971223e+05
2026-04-05 33.630978 67.236050 149.277819 417.449048 1662.939724 12732.729725 1.320028e+06